Abuja: The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that the economic policies implemented by the Bola Tinubu administration will establish new records in 2025, based on current economic trends. The IMPI’s statement comes after an in-depth analysis of the economy, following the introduction of Tinubu’s reforms over the past 19 months.
According to News Agency of Nigeria, Dr. Niyi Akinsiju, Chairman of IMPI, emphasized the significant improvements in the petroleum industry during 2024, despite numerous challenges. Key measures such as local refining and full deregulation of the oil sector have encouraged competitive pricing and reduced smuggling across borders. Additionally, the approval of five oil asset sales and two Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in 2024 has attracted foreign investors to Nigeria’s energy sector.
Oil sector analysts predict that production could average 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, potentially closing the year at 1.78 million bpd. This positive outlook is supported by initiatives to curb oil theft, including the Advance Cargo Declaration regime by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), ensuring legitimate export documentation.
To further boost crude oil production, President Tinubu signed three executive orders in February 2024, enhancing the investment climate and positioning Nigeria as a prime investment destination for the petroleum sector in Africa. The government also plans to hold a new oil licensing round in 2025, focusing on undeveloped oil blocks to increase crude reserves and production.
Despite a 40.9% depreciation of the naira in 2024, the currency’s subsequent appreciation contributed to a trade surplus for Nigeria, marking a strong performance from the non-oil sector. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data for October 2024 highlighted a positive trade balance, driven by substantial export earnings. The trade surplus increased to $2.21 billion, fueled by a 3.51% rise in total exports.
Although crude oil and gas dominated Nigeria’s exports, non-oil exports saw impressive growth, increasing by 19.23% to $0.62 billion. Key agricultural commodities, such as cocoa, sesame seeds, and aluminium, drove this growth. Brazil, the Netherlands, Malaysia, Japan, and Germany emerged as top destinations for Nigeria’s non-oil exports.
Nigeria’s Customs Service reported a significant rise in the total Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) value of exports, climbing to N136.65 trillion in 2024 from N42.77 trillion in 2023. This 219.5% increase reflects the impact of the depreciated naira on international trade, boosting export values and improving the trade balance.
The enhanced trade surplus and increased revenue inflows into the Federation Account led to greater disbursements to various government tiers, especially in Q3 2024. A CBN economic report noted a 7.48% increase in the Federation Account, mainly from non-oil sources such as Company Income Tax (CIT) and Value-Added Tax (VAT).
IMPI further indicated that the ongoing rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would highlight the economy’s resilience and diversification under President Tinubu’s administration, showcasing a dynamic and evolving economic landscape.