Cape Town: Today, Africa contributes less than 5% of the world's energy-related emissions, despite being home to 19% of Earth's population. By 2060, the continent's population is expected to reach 28% of the global total. But in that same timeframe, its share of energy-related emissions is projected to remain a modest 9%.
According to African Press Organization, these statistics, compiled in the recently released African Energy Chamber's State of African Energy: 2026 Outlook Report, highlight that Africa's responsibility for climate change is minimal. However, Western advocates continue to push for rapid fossil fuel phase-out universally, which presents a challenge given Africa’s unique circumstances.
Africa's low per-capita energy use positions it to drive global decarbonization efforts. Yet, infrastructure limitations make large-scale decarbonization challenging. A lack of grid capacity, outdated transmission lines, and a significant energy deficit hinder the integration of large-scale renewable projects. Furthermore, a significant portion of the population lacks access to reliable electricity, requiring decarbonization efforts to align with energy access expansion.
Addressing these infrastructure challenges involves more than new builds; it requires modernizing grids, promoting energy efficiency, and fostering local expertise. Amid emissions regulations drafted by international bodies, Africa has the potential to serve as a major green fuel supplier, contingent on significant infrastructure investments.
Transitioning to a low-carbon economy demands significant upfront investment, a challenge for many African countries due to perceived political and financial risks. Inconsistent policies and slow permitting processes create investor uncertainty, despite ambitious decarbonization targets. The continent's dependency on fossil fuel exports complicates the balance between economic stability and clean energy transition.
Africa's evolving energy profile, including hydrogen and critical minerals, can play a crucial role in global climate outcomes. The 2026 Outlook projects that by 2035, Africa could produce over 9 million tonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually, thanks to its vast solar and wind resources and proximity to major markets. Currently, major green hydrogen projects are concentrated in Namibia, South Africa, Mauritania, Egypt, and Morocco.
Namibia leads in green hydrogen development for export, with projects like the USD10 billion Hyphen green hydrogen project and the HyIron Oshivela green ironworks. South Africa has established a national "Hydrogen Valley," home to several large-scale projects like the Coega Green Ammonia Project and the Prieska Power Reserve Project.
In the north, Mauritania and Morocco are pursuing large-scale projects to capitalize on their wind and solar potential. Morocco is also positioning itself for export to Europe. Egypt is actively working to become a regional hub for hydrogen, with the Ain Sokhna Plant being the first operational green hydrogen production plant in Africa.
In addition to green hydrogen, Africa is rich in critical minerals like cobalt, copper, and lithium. The 2026 Outlook forecasts a quintupled demand for these minerals by 2035, positioning Africa as a pivotal player in the global supply chain. However, sustained investment in infrastructure, governance, and skills development is essential for success.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo leads in cobalt production, while Zimbabwe is a key player in lithium production. Both countries, along with others, are taking strategic steps to maximize their mineral potential.
The 2026 Outlook outlines strategies to unlock Africa's downstream potential in the global minerals landscape. Stable regulatory frameworks, regional cooperation, local technical capacity building, and technology transfer are crucial. African leaders must seize this opportunity to move up the value chain, unlocking economic value and raising nations out of energy poverty through sustained investment.